预测沉积物-水微宇宙系统中化学品浓度变化的多介质模型A Multimedia Model for Prediction of Chemicals Concentration Changes in Sediment-Water Microcosm Systems
莫俊超;舒耀皋;董晶;郭丹丹;范宾;刘刚;
摘要(Abstract):
沉积物-水微宇宙系统是经济合作发展组织(Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development,OECD)颁布的化学品测试准则中推荐的试验系统之一,可用来测试化学品对底栖生物的慢性毒性。为了在试验前对化学品的浓度变化进行预测,进而确定试验方法,以摇蚊慢性毒性试验系统为例,采用环境多介质模型的建模方法,构建了一种可通过化学品理化性质和试验系统参数,对化学品在沉积物-水试验系统中浓度变化进行预测的模型。结合试验数据和文献资料,给出了模型中试验系统参数的推荐取值,并使用Matlab软件中的Simulink工具对模型进行编程和求解。以此模型为基础,给出了模型在3个方面的应用,即预测蓄积时间、预测平衡时间以及拟合试验数据。对80种已有或假想化学品的蓄积时间和平衡时间进行了计算,得出的范围分别为<1~204 d和<1~73 d。此外,适当修改模型结构和模型参数,也可将其应用于其他暴露场景中。但使用模型对化学品浓度进行预测时发现,模型仅对沉积物中化学品浓度的预测结果较为准确,而对水中化学品浓度的预测结果与实测值相差1~2个数量级。模型对浓度的预测精度未来仍需进一步提高。上述研究结果完善了沉积物-水微宇宙系统试验方法。
关键词(KeyWords): 多介质模型;微宇宙;沉积物;预测;浓度变化
基金项目(Foundation): 上海市国际科技合作基金项目(13230700600)
作者(Author): 莫俊超;舒耀皋;董晶;郭丹丹;范宾;刘刚;
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DOI:
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